THIS MORNINGS QUICK LOOK

1.  TOUR DE MTG FINANCE –  Inflation Expectations
2.  PRODUCT HIGHLIGHT – AUS Runs Causing Issues
3.  MARKETING – Staying Motivated

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INFLATION EXPECTATIONS

I copied the below pic from Barry Habib and he got it from Scott Gottlieb and it shows the number of ships waiting outside of Shang Hai to be offloaded or onloaded.
 
You wonder why supply issues are still around well here is a big one of the reasons. Then add fears of Beijing shutting down that does not help the inflation numbers.
 
As a reminder the reason the Fed hikes rates which are expected to be at 50 BPS in both May and June are put in place to keep us from shopping on Amazon so much so that the supply chain can get caught up. The more expensive it is to buy stuff the less we buy.
 
This is the phenomenon that Netflix is experience right now with a massive reduction in users each quarter. The first negative to Netflix in over 10 years. This is due in part to people have to cut back in order to afford the core things in life like food and gas.
 
Other areas Netflix pointed at was competing streaming services and a lot more people sharing passwords and logins than used to.
 
Based on current trajectory they do believe we will begin to see relief in the supply chain by October and if things go like they are looking like we could possibly see a form of a recession in 2023 which is music to our ears in the mortgage industry and interest rates.

Product & Guideline Highlight Knowledge That Gives You An Edge Over Your Competition

AUS RUNS CAUSING ISSUES

Lucy came to me with an issue. She said Oh Great One Jack (HA!) I had an approve eligible and I have rerun the findings and am getting a refer and my situation for the borrower is better than when I had an approve. What up?

I am seeing this more and more and I do not believe it has to do with the agencies changing their stance on multiple aus runs but it is more that we have much more difficult files that we are trying to run.

This means we are making a lot more changes due to reserves or income or value changes and the agencies do not like multiple runs.

Ultimately if we all did our job exactly right we would only need one aus run. Well, when we run it 5 – 10 -15 – 20 times the agencies build in a risk assessment based on the fact they realize you are trying to rig the aus to get what you want.

The bottom line is this. When you register a loan and are trying to get an approve eligible make sure you make as many accurate changes as possible to not increase the number of aus runs as it will impact results sometimes.

It is a lot like when I get a complaint from someone that Flagstar is not good at what we do in underwriting and I go and look at the file and see that we have reviewed the file 17 times. If underwriters review a file 17 times I assure you it is the sender and not the receiver. Good data in feeds good data out. 

Moral of the story. Less AUS runs is better for approvals.

Marketing Ideas And Opportunites Little Things That Can Make A Big Impact

STAYING MOTIVATED

Last week we had a guest speaker by the name of Lee Rubin. Great guy!
 
He spoke on team work but I wanted to glean a little more in to what I took away that I think may be a good reminder for you as you make your way through this crazy high rate market.
 
WORDS OF WISDOM
The most successful people in any business are usually the most passionate about what they do and trying to accomplish. That doesn’t mean loud and obnoxious but it does mean passionate.
 
A competitor in this industry is a person that loves to win and hates to lose.
The definition of winning is being at or better than what you are capable of.
 
Don’t compare to others. Compare to what you are capable of doing and if you beat that then you are winning. Nothing less. If you do less than what you are capable of then you are losing.  Your greatest challenge is yourself.
 
Consistency is the key to winning. Practice makes consistency. We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence is not an act but a habit. I fear not the man that practices 10,000 different kicks once but one unique kick 10,000 times.
 
What kick do you need to master? What do you need to do to bring back that passion you once had? Are you exceeding what you are able to do?
 
Are you winning or losing the battle right now.

Turn Times As Of This Morning Lookin Good!