Where R Rates / MBS Market Update

NICE RATE RALLY

It is a good two days in the green friends. ADP came in way better than expected which is typically not great for mortgage bonds. 155K new jobs were created vs the expected 105K jobs which is significant.

Other items are overshadowing the ADP numbers. One of those big items is the pausing of quantitative tightening which again just means the Fed was not re-investing their maturing bonds and were just letting the balance sheet rundown a bit. 

They are not doing quantitative easing which means buying a bunch of bonds to create excessive demand which drives rates down. Although they are buying bonds and maintaining the balance sheet which means they are creating some demand to the tune of about 1 billion per day. This is good for us.

In addition, we are sitting at 4.13 on the 10 year this morning. This means we are below the 4.20 mark which we have been trying to get below for quite some time and in doing this it breaks us in to a new trading window which in layman terms means better mortgage rates. We are matching the rates seen in October of 2024. If we can maintain this momentum this could be a good sign to head towards September of 2024 rates which is about 120 BPS better than where we are right now. That would be the new ceiling. Think $1,200 less cost to get the same rate now per 100K in loan size. That would be very good for the refinance market.

Tariffs are also playing a role in this where multiple countries are beginning to back off and make some changes. We will see how that plays out. 

The average 30 year fixed rate went from 6.71% to 6.70%. Hey, it went down. This is good : ) Mortgage applications overall were down 1.6% week over week. Purchase applications increased 1.5% and refinance applications declined 5% week over week.

Let’s see what the day holds.

Just remember. You are in the business of relationships. Focus on that and the numbers will take care of themselves.

GREEN is GOOD for Rates – RED is BAD for Rates

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Product & Guideline Highlights Ad Mortgage Products

WELCOME TO AD MORTGAGE

Well, folks. I am officially an employee of AD Mortgage. The purchase of the Mr. Cooper broker and correspondent division was finalized yesterday.

AD Mortgage is now the largest Non-QM lender in the country and officially has the baddest to the bone Conventional and Govt division to take them to new heights.

Every road that is made must be dug out, plowed through and pavement installed. That is what we are in the process of doing.

I am looking forward to this new journey and if you want to join me I would love to have you. If you are a broker or non-delegated correspondent and in the near future delegated customer that your home office is in GA, AL, MS, FL panhandle or southern TN then I am your guy!

My door is always open so come on in if you so desire. Just click this button and it will connect you right in to my personal zoom office. I would love to chat.

Jackism of the Day

DON’T SWEAT IT

Every day we receive news that lifts us up and tends to tear us down. It depends on the moment and it depends on the who, what, where, why and how.

Over the almost 18 years I was with Flagstar I have built many wonderful relationships. People and companies that I call friends. These friends support my lifestyle and I support their lifestyle by being there for them.

From time to time we run in to situations where we lose someone that is a vital part of our career and our life.

Yesterday, one of my very long time clients let me know they would not be moving to AD Mortgage with us as a client. They are a substantial source of business for me and likewise I have great relationships with employees. It was one of those clients and relationships that was just easy and enjoyable. I knew them, they knew me and we made a great us.

When I heard the news the reasoning made sense for them and their situation and what they are trying to accomplish. I respect that and appreciated the personal phone call.

As much as I was let down and there is still a door open for our future together down the road a little ways I did not let it destroy my day.

I don’t like the cliche when a door closes another one opens because that simply is not true. When a door closes a door closes. That means you have to go find another door that is unlocked and the person behind it is willing to open it.

There is a certain joy in knowing I have to go find that door. I have to seek, knock and then the door will be opened unto me as the good book puts it.

There will never be a time where there is no opportunity for you in any form of business. There will always be a time for opportunity. Many times we get so comfortable in our shoes and in our ways and in our relationships that we do not try very hard to form new ones.

I have been given the blessing and the opportunity to forge new friendships, new relationships and new stories to make with people I may never have gotten to know if doors did not close on me on a regular basis.

When something happens to you that you feel it is not going your way and it is going to mess up your life. Guess what! It is not going your way and it likely will mess your life up temporarily. Duh, stuff happens.

It is what you do with it and the mindset, heart set and vision you have to overcome it. That is the exciting part about our journey.

Here is a lesson I preached over and over as an Elder of our church and as an AE in business. When you are figuring your budget for the year. Always take the top 5% of your givers in a church and the top 5% of your producers and never count on that income.

If you budget yourself based on not having the big accounts, big realtors and build your base on consistent producers then they can come and go without truly hurting your overall picture. It is nice to have the loyal big producers and enjoy them while you have them. Just be prepared to lose them as much as you enjoy them.

In business, the bigger you become the more you must protect yourself. That is understandable.

My point today is don’t get down when things don’t go your way. Instead get busy finding others you can make a difference in their lives by you being a part of what they are doing.